As evermore people become interlinked to the Facebook social network, increasing membership has to plateau at some point. In fact, it probably already has. But will Facebook’s usage plateau? I think this is unlikely. Let have a look at the facts…..
Whilst people spend an average of only 24 minutes on Twitter, they spend 7 hours on Facebook. On this basis, Twitter seems in greater trouble than Facebook.
Nonetheless, I think it would be unwise to believe that the site will have a smooth ride in maintaining its dominance. Fierce battles have already emerged between Facebook and its key competitors. Also, there is a growing supply of social media services offering creative solutions.
How should Facebook (and other social media companies) respond? Firstly, it is important to realise different sites have their individual strengths and features. On this basis, they might be better placed to differentiate themselves and focus on their strengths rather than putting their energy into battling with each other. Nonetheless, they all need to ensure they keep up with attractive innovations, to avoid users fleeing to use superior features elsewhere. Given Facebook’s growth on mobiles and its introduction of new tools, it does not seem to be heading for the real decline just yet. On the other hand, is the site doing enough innovations to keep its users entertained? And, what is Facebook’s strategic advantage? Whilst Facebook offers photo storage, videos and gaming, there are better places to find this.
As more companies enter the social media arena and gain popularity, competition is bound to intensify. Even mainstream users of social media are keen to be the first to try the latest innovation. This is good news for start-ups and bad news for Facebook. Established players should be wary these new start-ups do not steal their members. Whilst some people will remain active members of numerous sites, I think many people will move from Facebook as they struggle to maintain active use of all networking sites.
Arguably, the most threatening development is the establishment of Google+. Whilst Google+ is still a small player, the already powerful brand’s rapid growth means it should be closely monitored. Google+ is still in the early adopter stage of the product lifecycle. Will it have the strength to enter the mainstream market like Facebook and Twitter? Whilst Google+ is new development, it has the back of a strong brand and a range of standard and innovative features that are more than a rival to Facebook. However, it has not attracted mass adoption overnight. So let’s not get too carried away. I believe further work still needs to be done for it to become the new alternative to Facebook.
Overall, I think speculations over Facebook’s decline seem rash, ungrounded and unlikely to actually happen in the near future. However, it is premature to project exactly how the situation will evolve in the distant future. Indeed, long-term trends of competing social media sites slump and growth are unclear. Whether trends in Facebook’s lower usage are a long-term trend or a short-term blip are uncertain. The longer-term trend will depend on how Facebook and its competitors are able to offer exciting innovative solutions. How members, potential members, and competitors respond will be an interesting development for us to watch out for.
Lilach
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27 Responses to Facebook use dropping A real phenomenon?
Great post. Thanks for sharing!
Thanks Adam, my pleasure:)
Twitter: lilachbullock
Whew is this “rapid growth” of Google+ you talk about? The site’s traffic has been in a freefall for almost TWO MONTHS now. IT had three weeks of sign ups (but few users) and sincethen, it has stalled. In fact, Facebook’s lead (in both users and traffic) has INCREASED over Google+ in the last 7 weeks.
It will be interesting to see how the growth of Google + goes… especially now it’s opened it’s doors and you no longer need an invite. The latest stat’s I can find are 10million members (as of July 11). Which is pretty good going considering the short time it’s been available plus it was only open by invite only.
But with Facebook continually adding new features it looks like there will be a battle commencing – Let’s see who wins:)
Twitter: lilachbullock
Great point. However, I still haven’t wrapped my head around Google + It hasn’t really been attractive to me
Thanks Shanda:) Just two days ago I read that Google + now has 40 million members… I wrote a blog on how to create a business page here which you may find useful http://www.socialable.co.uk/how-to-set-up-a-google-business-page/
Twitter: lilachbullock
I agree that Facebook is not going into decline any time soon. Their recent changes to the functionality seem to be in response to what Google + was offering, however, I found it overcomplicated the site. I tried Google + and was immediately put of by what seemed like too much detail and too much to have to understand just to get going. I think that the next big player will be the one that really masters making it easy to filter out the information you don’t wish to see in an easy no-brainer way. I’m even beginning to think that it might be worth paying for a clutter free easy to navigate platform to communicate with my social networks
Twitter: tycoonwoman
Yes it’s interesting how Facebook have captured some of the new features of Google +. I’m also finding Facebook very cluttered and too busy – a lot of people complained about the recent changes. I think that there is definitely room in the social media marketplace for a new social network that is clutter free… the question is would 800 million people move over? This is what is currently keeping Facebook at the top. I’m looking forward to seeing how the changes impact Facebook long term and of course watching how Google + tries to compete.
Twitter: lilachbullock
we must know that is’s very intersting to be updated with your friends , and now there is a big chalenge with facebook and Google+ .
so who will win this race ?
Twitter: m7medragab
Thanks, I think Facebook is miles ahead at the moment but I’m interested in watching how things progress with Google +
Twitter: lilachbullock
Interesting post. But your pop-up drives me bananas.
yes, me too.
Thanks Jeremy:) Sorry the pop up drives you crazy. I experiment with the frequency of it… It does dramatically increase my subscribers though.
Twitter: lilachbullock
I think that social media itself will cause it’s own decline. So many choices and information overload and noise I think will cause people to turn off!
Google+ growth I would think was due to people thinking that they should be there so they just signed up and have not been back since
Thanks Chris. It will be interesting to see how social media grows/declines over the next year or so. I’m seeing a huge growth particularly in Twitter and whilst many people left Facebook in the recent changes more are flooding to the site.
Google + will be interesting to watch. I do use it but at the moment my main focus is on Twitter and Facebook. For me it’s not about the choices it’s the time they take for each one to really get good results.
Twitter: lilachbullock
Many enjoy twitter as a fast tweet on a simple quick message. The android market has increased and google has taken a rise in members. Facebook? Perhaps it may take a small decline in membership?
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Twitter: blogtipsca
Whilst the numbers have dropped on Facebook, particularly with the recent changes it does still continue to grow at a phenomenal rate – I don’t think Facebook are worried:)
Twitter: lilachbullock
‘they spend 7 hours on Facebook’. per day, per month?
Well I can spend a few hours per day! How much time do you spend on average?
Twitter: lilachbullock
‘I’m also finding Facebook very cluttered and too busy’ me too.
I know, since they made the recent changes my home feed is a nightmare! So busy and cluttered.
Twitter: lilachbullock
Facebook changes so often, and now with the new time line, many are opting out for Twitter.
Can say I blame them. Loathe the new time line stuff.
BTW, love your 5 Crazy ways to get Buyers……
Thanks.
Thanks Margaret. Well it will certainly be an interesting year for Facebook. I see many more changes coming, particularly as they will probably go public this year.
I actually like the new timeline but it did take a while to get used to it, now that I have I prefer it:)
Appreciate your great feedback about my eBook, thanks:)
Twitter: lilachbullock
I think you make some great points, however I would like to point out in terms of advertising revenue etc that there are a lot of users like myself that rarely ever physically go on facebook. I am probably counted in the data but most of my posts etc come from automated stuff from twitter to facebook or using external programs to use facebook.
In the end I really have never ‘liked’ facebook and I think there is a good portion of folks who tolerate because they have a few friends they can only contact that way. I think the business cycles on the internet are so short that even big boys like google could vanish in the blink of an eye. Netscape used to be quite big… and no more.
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Twitter: kjwrite
I wonder if like me some FB users have got bogged down after LIKING too many? Getting to grips with the new timeline made me aware of how much rubbish I had to trawl down to see anything interesting on my personal FB page for instance – often as a result of clicking through from a website or entering some silly competition. Takes a while to weed out the dross too! Twitter relies on lots of posts but FB pages can scare off fans with too many perhaps?
Twitter: twitter.comelectrafilms
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Twitter: pandorapixi
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